2016年3月3日 星期四

Drought and Heat Took a Heavy Toll on Crops, Study Finds/50年間1成穀物 毀於極端氣候


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2016/03/04 第109期 訂閱/退訂看歷史報份
 
 
紐時周報精選 Drought and Heat Took a Heavy Toll on Crops, Study Finds/50年間1成穀物 毀於極端氣候
Move over, millennials. The centenarians are coming./更長壽、更活躍 美國百歲人瑞大增
紐時周報精選
 
Drought and Heat Took a Heavy Toll on Crops, Study Finds/50年間1成穀物 毀於極端氣候
NICHOLAS ST. FLEUR
陳韋廷譯

新研究報告指出,1964至2007年間受極端氣候災害衝擊的國家,稻米、小麥、玉米以及其他穀類作物幾乎有一成毀於旱災與熱浪。

Droughts and heat waves wiped out nearly a tenth of the rice, wheat, corn and other cereal crops in countries hit by extreme weather disasters between 1964 and 2007, according to a new study.

報告發表於「自然」期刊,檢視了50年來極端溫度、洪災及旱災影響全國農作收成的相關數據。

The paper, published in Nature, examined data on the effects, over five decades, of extreme temperatures, floods and droughts on national crop harvests.

報告作者之一、英屬哥倫比亞大學地理學家納文.拉曼庫堤說:「人們已經知道這些極端氣候事件會影響農作產量,但我們不知道影響有多大,我們沒有評斷未來可能如何變化的根據。」

"People already knew that these extreme weather events had impacts on crop production," said Navin Ramankutty, a geographer from the University of British Columbia and an author of the report.

拉曼庫的團隊將災害資料庫內的數據跟聯合國糧農組織的糧食生產資訊結合。他們檢視了約2800個氣候災害,包括1983-1984年間的衣索匹亞旱災,以及2003年的歐洲熱浪。同時,他們也研究了177個國家栽種燕麥、大麥、黑麥、玉米等16種穀物的數據。

"But we didn't know by how much, and we didn't have a basis for how that might change in the future."

Ramankutty and his team combined data from a disaster database with food production information from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. They looked at about 2,800 weather disasters, such as the 1983-1984 drought in Ethiopia and the 2003 European heat wave, along with data on 16 different cereals, including oats, barley, rye and maize, grown in 177 countries.

他們發現旱災使一國農作物減產10%,熱浪則為9%,但洪災與寒流對農業產量水平沒有影響。他的團隊估計,受旱災與熱浪影響,1964年至2007年間穀類減產逾30億公噸。

拉曼庫堤說:「我們對此並未深思,但光是稻米、小麥與玉米就提供了全球超過50%的熱量。當這些榖物生產受創,會導致糧價震盪,從而使飢荒日益嚴重。」

They found that droughts cut a country's crop production by 10 percent, and heat waves by 9 percent, but that floods and cold spells had no effects on agricultural production levels. His team estimated a loss of more than 3 billion tons of cereal production from 1964 to 2007 as a result of droughts and heat waves.

"We don't think about it much, but rice, wheat and maize alone provide more than 50 percent of global calories," said Ramankutty. "When these grain baskets are hit, it results in food price shocks, which leads to increasing hunger."

隨著全球人口飆升,糧食生產也必須增加以養活多出的人。前述報告作者之一、英格蘭布萊頓的薩塞克斯大學土地變化科學家佩德藍.羅哈尼說,世界若要滿足這些需求,就得用有效且永續的方式來做。

As the global population soars, food production will need to increase to feed the extra mouths. But if the world is to meet those demands, it must do so efficiently and sustainably, said Pedram Rowhani, a land-change scientist from the University of Sussex in Brighton, England, and another of the study's authors.

 
Move over, millennials. The centenarians are coming./更長壽、更活躍 美國百歲人瑞大增
Sabrina Tavernise
王麗娟譯

The number of Americans age 100 and older — those born during Woodrow Wilson's administration or earlier — is up by 44 percent since 2000, federal health officials reported last month.

請讓開路,千禧世代。百歲人瑞進城了。

聯邦衛生官員上月發表報告指出,年紀上百的美國人,亦即在伍德羅.威爾遜政府年代或更早就出生的人,2000年以來增加了44%之多。

There were 72,197 of them in 2014, up from 50,281 in 2000, according to the report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 1980, they numbered about 15,000.

Even demographers seemed impressed.

根據美國聯邦疾病防制中心的報告,2014年,美國百歲人瑞共7萬2197人,比2000年的5萬281人要多。 1980年,他們約是1萬5000人。

就連人口學家也感訝異。

"There is certainly a wow factor here, that there are this many people in the United States over 100 years old," said William H. Frey, the senior demographer at the Brookings Institution. "Not so long ago in our society, this was somewhat rare."

Not only are there more centenarians, but they are living even longer. Death rates declined for all demographic groups of centenarians — white, black, Hispanic, female, male — in the six years ending in 2014, the report said.

布魯金斯研究所資深人口統計學家威廉.佛瑞說:「這其中當然有令人驚嘆之處,美國竟有這麼多百歲人瑞。不久前,這在我們社會裡都還算罕見。」

百歲老人不僅人數增多 ,壽命也更長。報告指出,至2014年為止的6年裡,所有百歲人瑞的人口群體,無論白人、黑人、拉美裔、女性,或男性,死亡率均告下降。

Women, who typically live longer than men, accounted for more than 80 percent of centenarians in 2014.

Centenarians are an elite group. Most people born in 1900 did not live past 50. But chances of survival to such ripe ages have improved with the rise of vaccines and antibiotics, and improvements in hygiene, medical treatments and technology. There are exceptions: The explosion of opioid overdose deaths in recent years has erased progress for some groups, particularly young and middle-age whites.

通常比男性來得長壽的女性,2014年占百歲人瑞八成以上。

百歲人瑞是菁英團體。1900年出生的人,多數活不過50歲。但隨著疫苗、抗生素出現, 衛生、醫療和技術的提升,活到這種熟齡的機率跟著上升。其中也有例外:吸食類鴉片過量致死近幾年爆炸性成長,削去了一些群體的進展,特別是年輕和中年的白人。

Malvina Hunt, a resident of central New York, who turned 100 in October, said her secret was vigorous exercise. Every morning, she does leg lifts and rapid arm raises to get the blood flowing.

And she still works — as a greeter in a winery. She also helps build cartons used to ship wine.

馬維娜.韓特說她的秘訣是劇烈運動,她是紐約市中心居民,去年10月過百歲生日。每天早上,她做抬腿和快速舉臂動作,讓血液流動。

而且她仍在工作,在一家酒廠當迎賓員。她還幫忙做運送葡萄酒用的紙箱。

Whites are driving the aging of America. In the last full census in 2010, the median age for whites was 42, far older than the Hispanic population, whose median age was 27.

Baby boomers, a large bulge in the population, have started to enter retirement and will soon be bumping up the numbers of the elderly to record levels. Experts are warning that the United States is unprepared to handle such large numbers of seniors, especially as the life expectancy of older people continues to rise.

白人正驅使美國人口老化。美國上次全面人口普查是2010年,白人平均年齡42歲,遠高於拉美裔人口的平均年齡27歲。

在人口中占頗大比例的嬰兒潮世代,已開始邁入退休年齡,且不久後就會將老人人數推上歷史新高。專家警告說,美國尚未為處理數量如此龐大的老人做好準備,特別是老人壽命還持續向上攀升。

 
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