2021年11月11日 星期四

The Revolt of the American Worker 美國勞動階級的逆襲


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2021/11/12 第358期 訂閱/退訂看歷史報份
 
 
紐時周報精選 The Revolt of the American Worker 美國勞動階級的逆襲
Democrats' Divide: Should Obama-Era Economic Ideas Prevail in 2021? 歐巴馬經濟理念還適用嗎? 民主黨意見分歧
紐時周報精選
 
The Revolt of the American Worker 美國勞動階級的逆襲
文/Paul Krugman
譯/陳韋廷

美國勞動階級的逆襲

All happy economies are alike; each unhappy economy is unhappy in its own way.

所有幸福的經濟體都是一樣的,而每一個不幸的經濟體則有著自己的不快樂。

In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the economy's problems were all about inadequate demand. The housing boom had gone bust; consumers weren't spending enough to fill the gap; the Obama stimulus, designed to boost demand, was too small and short-lived.

2008年金融危機之後,經濟問題全是需求不足。房市榮景已經破滅,消費者支出不足以填補缺口。旨在提振需求的歐巴馬刺激計畫,規模太小且太短暫。

In 2021, by contrast, many of our problems seem to be about inadequate supply. Goods can't reach consumers because ports are clogged; a shortage of semiconductor chips has crimped auto production; many employers report that they're having a hard time finding workers.

相較之下,我們在2021年的許多問題似乎是供應不足。貨物因為港口堵塞無法到達消費者手中,半導體晶片短缺抑制汽車生產,許多雇主則通報稱招工困難。

Much of this is probably transitory, although supply-chain disruptions will clearly last for a while. But something more fundamental and lasting may be happening in the labor market. Long-suffering American workers, who have been underpaid and overworked for years, may have hit their breaking point.

這種狀況大部分可能是暫時性的,儘管供應鏈中斷顯然將會持續一段時間。不過,勞動市場可能會發生一些更重大與持久的事情。多年來低薪過勞、長期受苦的美國勞工,恐已經瀕臨忍耐極限。

About those supply-chain issues: It's important to realize that more goods are reaching Americans than ever before. The problem is that despite increased deliveries, the system isn't managing to keep up with extraordinary demand.

至於這些供應鏈問題,重要的是要了解,到達美國民眾手中的商品多過以往任何時候。問題在於,儘管交貨量增加,但整個系統仍無法滿足異常的需求。

Earlier in the pandemic, people compensated for the loss of many services by buying stuff instead. People who couldn't eat out remodeled their kitchens. People who couldn't go to gyms bought home exercise equipment.

疫情初期,人們藉由購買東西來彌補失去許多服務。無法外出用餐的人重新裝潢了他們的廚房,不能去健身房的人們則購買了家用健身器材。

But things will improve. As COVID-19 subsides and life gradually returns to normal, consumers will buy more services and less stuff, reducing the pressure on ports, trucking and railroads.

但情況將有所改善。隨著新冠疫情消退與生活逐漸恢復正常,消費者將購買更多服務與更少商品,進而減輕港口、卡車運輸與鐵路的壓力。

The labor situation, by contrast, looks like a genuine reduction in supply. Total employment is still 5 million below its pre-pandemic peak. Employment in the leisure and hospitality sector is still down more than 9%. Yet everything we see suggests a very tight labor market.

相較之下,勞動市場的情形看來確實是供給減少。總就業人數仍比疫情前高峰少500萬。休閒餐旅業就業率仍減少超過9%。我們看到的一切均顯示勞動市場非常吃緊。

It seems quite possible that the pandemic, by upending many Americans' lives, also caused some of them to reconsider their life choices. Not everyone can afford to quit a hated job, but a significant number of workers seem ready to accept the risk of trying something different — retiring earlier despite the monetary cost, looking for a less unpleasant job in a different industry, and so on.

這場疫情顛覆許多美國人生活,似乎也很可能促使他們當中一些人重新思考人生選擇。不是所有人都能承擔得起辭掉討厭的工作,但相當多的人似乎準備承擔風險嘗試不同事物,像是不顧金錢成本提早退休,或在不同產業找一份較不討厭的工作等等。

And although this new choosiness by workers who feel empowered is making consumers' and business owners' lives more difficult, let's be clear: Overall, it's a good thing. American workers are insisting on a better deal, and it's in the nation's interest that they get it.

自覺有權這樣做的勞工們這種新的挑剔情形,雖然讓消費者跟企業主的生活更艱難,但我們要知道,整體來說這是一件好事。美國勞工堅持更好的待遇,讓他們得到符合國家利益。

 
Democrats' Divide: Should Obama-Era Economic Ideas Prevail in 2021? 歐巴馬經濟理念還適用嗎? 民主黨意見分歧
文/Neil Irwin
譯/陳韋廷

歐巴馬經濟理念還適用嗎? 民主黨意見分歧

Over the past dozen years, there has been a sea change in how economists view many crucial questions related to deficits, public debt and the long-term payoffs of social spending.

過去十多年來,對於許多跟赤字、公共債務與社會支出的長期回報相關的重要問題,經濟學家的看法發生了巨大變化。

Most Democratic elected officials have embraced this new thinking, and it permeates the Biden domestic agenda. But a handful of Democrats are unpersuaded, holding to a view that was more widespread in the early Obama years, focusing on the risks of debt and spending.

大多數民主黨民選官員都接受這個新思維,它滲透到拜登的國內政策中,但少數民主黨人並未被說服,他們堅持歐巴馬執政初期較為普遍的觀點,關注債務與支出的風險。

That tension, and how it resolves itself — or doesn't — will be central to the evolution of the Biden presidency and U.S. economic policy for years to come. On the surface, there is a clash between lawmakers with different political instincts. But there is also a clash over whether a more traditional view will prevail over a newer approach that has become mainstream among economists — especially those who lean left, but with some acceptance among center-right thinkers.

這種緊張關係,以及它如何自行解決或無法解決,將是拜登總統任期與未來幾年美國經濟政策演變的核心。表面上看,有著不同政治直覺的議員之間存在衝突,但更傳統的觀點是否會壓過在經濟學家之間已成主流的新路線,這個問題也存在著衝突,尤其是那些左傾但也被中間偏右派思想家所接受的人。

In the older view, it is irresponsible to increase long-term budget deficits because it will curtail private investment and risk a fiscal crisis. Social policies should be seen as a zero-sum trade-off between alleviating poverty and encouraging work. And any major new spending should be coupled with enough revenue-raising measures that the number-crunchers at the Congressional Budget Office conclude the numbers will balance over the next 10 years.

較早期的觀點認為,增加長期預算赤字是不負責任的,因為這將削減私人投資,並可能引發財政危機。社會政策應被視為減少貧困和鼓勵工作之間的零和權衡。任何重大新支出均應跟足夠的提高歲入措施結合,以便國會預算辦公室的會計能得出這些數字將在未來十年保持平衡。

This was the approach that the Obama administration and congressional Democrats took in passing the Affordable Care Act, a process made lengthier and more complex by these self-imposed constraints.

這就是歐巴馬政府與國會民主黨人通過《平價健保法案》時採取的方法,這些自我施加的限制令過程變得更漫長、更複雜。

But since those days, the intellectual ground has shifted in important ways.

但從那時候開始,知識領域發生了重大變化。

For one, long-term interest rates have fallen precipitously, even as very large budget deficits have become the norm. That implies the United States can maintain higher public debt than once seemed possible without excessively constraining private investment or facing excessive interest costs.

首先,儘管巨額預算赤字已成常態,但長期利率卻急劇下降。這意味著美國可在不過度限制私人投資,或面臨過高利息成本情況下,維持高於以往可能水準的公共債務。

"The long-term downward move in interest rates is the most important macroeconomic development that has occurred over the last couple of decades," said Karen Dynan, a former official at the Federal Reserve and at the Obama Treasury Department who now teaches at Harvard.

曾在聯準會與歐巴馬政府的財政部擔任官員、目前在哈佛大學任教的凱倫.戴南說:「利率的長期下降,是過去數十年發生的最重要宏觀經濟發展。」

"Lower rates make deficit-financed spending less costly in budget terms and lowers the economic cost, because you can think of lower rates as a signal that the private sector has less demand for that money," Dynan said.

戴南說:「從預算的角度來看,較低的利率會降低赤字融資支出成本,並會降低經濟成本,因為你可以把較低的利率,看成是私人部門對這些金錢需求所減少的信號。」

 
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